Now we ask why?

Anyone who watched the events of yesterday will agree that this was one massive storm that chewed its way across our state. Because of better technology, including tower cameras that recorded the wicked looking tornado in Cullman and the mile wide tornado that devastated Tuscaloosa and parts of Birmingham many people watched in horror as they realized the debris they were seeing in the air were pieces of homes and businesses and who knows what else.

Watch the Cullman tornado, which some people describes as a "demon, reaching down." Watch the entire thing. Evil.



One thing that had people on edge, but probably saved many lives in the Bessemer and Birmingham area, is that as we watched the tornado tearing up Tuscaloosa, we knew that we were in its path. We knew to prepare. Again, watch the entire video.



So why did this happen?

Here are some descriptions from the ABC33/40 weather blog prior to these storms. (I've put in bold the most important phrases as they relate to this discussion).

April 27, 2011

Dr. Tim Coleman 9:31 AM

Sunshine will warm temperatures quickly this morning through the 70s, and it will reach the lower 80s by afternoon. However, the morning balloon data from NWS Birmingham showed very cold air aloft. And, even though dewpoints dropped to the upper 50s as the thunderstorms mixed up the atmosphere, they are already rising, and will rise throughout the day. As the sun continues to heat the atmosphere up, the 70 mph winds at 3,000 feet will start to get mixed with the surface layer winds, so gradient winds will get very gusty by late morning, probably 30 mph at times. And those winds will be out of the south, bringing in Gulf moisture (dewpoints in SW Alabama are in the 70s). Once we get warm, humid air back in place at the surface by noon or so, with cold air aloft, the air will be very unstable. CAPE values (atmospheric potential energy) will reach 3,000 to 5,000 J/kg, supporting strong updrafts and intense storms this afternoon.

The other problem is the wind shear. The main upper-level system will approach by late afternoon. Winds will increase in speed and change direction with height, creating spin about a horizontal axis. Storm updrafts will tilt this rotation into the vertical (like a spiraling football getting tipped at the line of scrimmage), producing rotating storms. The helicity, or a measure of this wind shear, will also be very high, between 300 and 600 m2/s2. It is rare to see this much wind shear in an almost summerlike environment with warm, humid air like this.

The combination of extreme instability (like we see on summer afternoons) and extreme wind shear (like we see often in winter) will create a very dangerous setup over Alabama this afternoon. The energy-helicity index (a combo of CAPE and wind shear) measures the overall tornado potential well. Anything over 2 means tornadoes are possible, and over 5 tornadoes are likely. On April 8, 1998, the EHI was around 6. Today, as you can see on the maps below for 3, 5, and 7 pm, we expect EHI values of 8-10 over much of north and central Alabama, some of the highest I’ve ever seen.

Bill Murray 11:00 am

I don’t think I have ever heard a tornado watch referred to as a long lead time, long duration, particularly dangerous situation tornado watch before. But I have now in the latest mesoscale discussion from SPC.
That sounds bad…and it is bad. It will be issued for much of North and Central Mississippi, possibly into West Central Alabama.

James Spann 1:29 pm

A major severe weather outbreak is likely anytime from now until midnight. See the high STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values from the RUC at 1:00… remember, anything over 2 is very significant. These are about as high as they get.

So let's look at the possible reasons for this severe weather outbreak. Remember, I am one who does not like to use anecdotal evidence to prove a position, but I will use it to support one.

God did it. Nope. God does not micromanage our lives or the world around us. But God probably does like to see how we respond to crisis, and there is opportunity for good to come out of any situation, including this one.

Random event. For weather or any other measurable thing there is a range of values for normal occurrences and sometimes results fall outside of that range. Records will be broken. This could just be a huge event, an outlier, that will now be the record that someday will be broken.

Result of global warming. Hmmm. With climate change, experts agree that there will be more extreme weather events. This could mean more frequent snowstorms (oddly enough) and more powerful hurricanes (Katrina). But tornadoes?

According to a 2007 report NASA scientists have developed a weather model that predicts that really violent storms may become more common due to global warming. Read it.

Their model simulates the strength of updrafts in storms, and estimates how the strength will increase with a warming climate. They explain this in the article, then conclude with:

The central and eastern areas of the United States are especially prone to severe storms and thunderstorms that arise when strong updrafts combine with horizontal winds that become stronger at higher altitudes. This combination produces damaging horizontal and vertical winds and is a major source of weather-related casualties. In the warmer climate simulation there is a small class of the most extreme storms with both strong updrafts and strong horizontal winds at higher levels that occur more often, and thus the model suggests that the most violent severe storms and tornadoes may become more common with warming.

The prediction of stronger continental storms and more lightning in a warmer climate is a natural consequence of the tendency of land surfaces to warm more than oceans and for the freezing level to rise with warming to an altitude where lightning-producing updrafts are stronger. These features of global warming are common to all models, but this is the first climate model to explore the ramifications of the warming for thunderstorms.

So there is evidence that climate change, aka global warming, makes this type of monster storm more possible because it creates an atmosphere where updrafts are stronger and horizontal winds are stronger. Together that provides the recipe for disaster.

Clearing the air...or not

One of the purposes of this blog is to make Bessemer a better place by promoting things that will improve this community and pointing out things that will not. Of course, Bessemer is not an island, so often I write about things on a state level or national level that might influence Bessemer one way or another. That includes the environment and congress and...

Indulge me for a moment. Off the subject a bit, yesterday a rerun of Glee was shown, in which the cute new guy, Sam, was introduced to the group.


He was asked to perform a duet with Kurt, who is gay, and Finn advises him not to because he will get labeled as gay, even though he is not.

The same thing can happen in congress. Let's say a Democrat votes alongside the Republicans who proclaim that global warming is junk science. Then she stands to be labeled a contrarian, or someone who is ignoring science, and she certainly wouldn't want that.

Terri Sewell voted in favor of HR 910, the so called Energy Tax Prevention Act (which mentions "tax" zero times in the bill, by the way) which could have been called any number of things more accurately.

Jared Polis of Colorado submitted an amendment to change the title to "The Dirty Air Act of 2011." Gerry Connolly of Virginia was somewhat more industrious. He submitted eight amendments including "The Koch Brothers Appreciation Act," "The Protecting Americans from Polar Bears Act," and "The Head in the Sand Act."

Anyway, the bill's purpose is "To amend the Clean Air Act to prohibit the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency from promulgating any regulation concerning, taking action relating to, or taking into consideration the emission of a greenhouse gas to address climate change, and for other purposes.

The bill goes on to name water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and several other gases as "greenhouse gases."

In other words, the bill prohibits the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency from protecting the environment.

In effect, the bill would gut the EPA in its attempts to guarantee clean air. Fortunately the Senate will not pass it.

I spoke with someone in Ms. Sewell's office at length about the bill. He told me they had spoken to people in the scientific community and the manufacturing community before deciding how to vote. I asked him to name the scientists, but as it turns out there weren't any, just the "science committee members." (Terri sits on the "Science, Space and Technology Committee, by the way). The committee, like all committees in the house, is chaired by and controlled by Republicans.

They could have spoken to some real scientists at EPA, where they could have learned this. Pay particular attention to figures 1 and 2. You can click on them to enlarge them.

He also made a statement that the gases listed were not the ones causing climate change. And that there are two sides to the issue. And that they wanted the facts from both sides.

1. No credible scientist would say that carbon dioxide and methane do not contribute to climate change. Specifically, these gases do just that.
2. There are not two truthful sides to the issue. The contrarians are only interested in profits for the big companies and not in protecting the environment.
3. There are no facts on the other side regarding climate change, or, if there are some facts they are buried under fake headlines and crazy talk.
   

Ms. Sewell's office told me that she was concerned about jobs in the area. There is an assumption made that if the greenhouse gases are regulated that jobs would be lost. But maybe, just maybe, new job opportunities would open up with green technology being developed!!! And let's not get into how many jobs will be lost and lives affected if greenhouse gases are not regulated.

Air pollution and restrictive injunctions are not new to Birmingham and Jefferson County. This report tells of the 1971 use (the very first use) of the injunctive authority of the Federal Clean Air Act. Jefferson County is still feeling the effects, having been prevented from allowing certain manufacturing and industrial development because of our non-attainment status related to limitations on emissions.

Those were different pollutants, not greenhouse gases, but my point is that threats to our atmosphere need to be taken seriously, and that there are health risks, known and unknown, that are amplified when those threats are ignored.

Complicating the atmosphere (in a good way) the Obama administration recently reversed a Bush policy that allowed more industrial pollution. Again, these are not greenhouse gases, but other pollutants. But it shows that we do have a president who cares about the environment (at least on this issue).

The ruling is a victory for cleaner air across Alabama and especially in areas such as heavily-polluted Birmingham and Jefferson County, which has failed to meet federal air quality standards for dangerous fine particulates for many years, according to Michael Churchman, executive director of the Alabama Environmental Council.

“What happened here is that some of Alabama’s polluters convinced regulators to relax a rule that had been on the books for 30 years – only after citizens sued to enforce that rule. Today, the EPA recognized that was the wrong decision,” Churchman said in reacting to the news locally. “Technology is used all over the country to better control emissions and should be required to operate continuously in Alabama.”

The Birmingham area has been failing to meet minimum federal air quality standards for fine particles (soot) for seven years. These airborne, microscopic solids and liquid droplets (made up of acids, organic chemicals, metals, and other matter) can lodge deeply in the lungs and bloodstream, aggravating a number of cardiopulmonary diseases.

“There is a demonstrated link between fine particle pollution and asthma in children,” said Tiffany Schauer, Executive Director of Our Children’s Earth Foundation. “Thanks to today’s action, every family in Alabama can breathe a little easier.”

So, as one whose life and livelihood has been dramatically affected by asthma, I would like to have a clean atmosphere. And as one who has studied climate change, I would like to have responsible politicians that take our environment seriously. This is not buyer's remorse, but I do hope that Terri learns from this experience, and that when environmental issues come up in the future, that she can show a little more concern.

Baptists and Global Warming

In a shocking...shocking development ...Southern Baptists are urging a fight against global warming.

After years of denial a group has released a declaration, signed by the president of the denomination Frank Page and other natables, including Timothy George of Samford University's Beeson Divinity School, and heads of other seminaries, that says they have been "too timid" on environmental issues and that the denomination has a biblical duty to stop global warming.

The declaration stated that the Baptists may have been "seen by the world as uncaring, reckless and ill-informed." Yes sir, good observation.

Because just last year this was their message: "The Southern Baptist Convention rejected scientific claims that humans are to blame for global warming and dismissed the governmental efforts to reverse it. "

They now seem to be in agreement with Bessemer Opinions that humans have a responsibility to care for God's creation, as was posted on Earth Day 2007.

Or maybe they read the Bible, rather than just picking and choosing which verses they can use to hurt other people.

At any rate, better late than never, although I imagine many Baptists preachers will "go down " kicking and screaming over this. Of course, individual churches and pastors are not bound by this declaration anyway.

But it is encouraging. Now if only they will recognize the truth about poverty, gays and lesbians, war and such. For this I am not holding my breath.

That being said, I do have some good friends and in-laws that are Baptists and who are concerned about the environment and climate change, so there is hope.

I Learned Why I Am Not a Math Guy...and Lot's More

Camellias just refuse to give up.

But I am glad, especially on cold, gray days like today. This picture was taken yesterday, and it is not a great picture, but I wanted to show how big and full of blooms this shrub is. It is about 15 feet tall and 15-18 feet across.


Close by, actually in its shadow, I discovered this pink camellia, which I did not even know was there until yesterday.

This white camellia is just beginning its bloom cycle. It was blooming in late March 2000, when I first looked at this house. It will bloom until sometime in April.

And this one is in front of the house, and has the most perfect blooms.



There was an article in last weeks New Yorker that explains in part why I am not a math person, and consequently why statistics is killing me this semester. Also it explains why Terminal 2 at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris is so confusing to people. I often wondered.

Anyway, I feel better about my math challenges and the trouble I had with the division tables in elementary school (multiplication was not a problem). Numbers Guy

The new issue has a column about the Dream Team of Obama and Clinton or Clinton and Obama, but not as running mates. More about our dreams... McGrath.

And I have to disagree whole heartedly with my editor in this week's Western Tribune. Sorry, but dissing global warming because we are having a cold winter is like thinking the economy is in good shape because the Dow Jones rose 41 points a couple of days ago. And it is not really science to recognize that it is cold this winter. It is just an observation. This winter's data becomes science when it is added to the data collected in the past.

Remember three points.

• All scientific work is incomplete
• All scientific work is liable to be replaced
• We have an obligation to use what we have at the time

I have no problem with someone not recognizing that climate change is a serious problem, but when they use that belief to encourage others to keep their "large SUV" and fill up their tanks and go for a spin, thus wasting precious oil (gasoline) and furthering our dependence on foreign energy sources. Not to mention creating more greenhouse gases (that they don't believe in anyway).

Climate change will be the focus of a meeting at the Birmingham Zoo this weekend. Well, the meeting is actually at the Sheraton Birmingham, but will host about 350 members of the Association of Zoos and Aquariums. Dr. James McClintock of UAB and Antarctica fame, will be the keynote speaker.

This may be hard for the non-believers to understand, but McClintock uses penguins as an example of how global warming is damaging nature. Because there is more snowfall, a species of penguin's eggs are not hatching like they did years ago.

"More snow? But...". Calm down. It is snowing more because the warmer air in Antarctica holds more moisture.

This story was in the Birmingham News, but as is often the case, no link.

And speaking of snow, they just changed the forecast and Birmingham can get as much as 1.5 inches of snow tonight. Enjoy!!!

Contrarians v. the World

When you have two stories in the front section of the paper (The Birmingham News) about a subject...for instance climate change...you don't even have to read the articles to realize that it is a good thing.

Story 1.
Al Gore (the Nobel laureate) is acting as peacemaker at the U. N. climate conference in Bali, where European Union nations are threatening to boycott an upcoming meeting in the U. S. unless the Bush administration agrees to a compromise regarding reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Without repeating all the numbers here, European nations and others want numerical goals as reference points in curbing global warming. The U. S. refuses to accept the goals, instead just promoting a program that encourages nationally determined voluntary cutbacks.

Gore is urging the delegations to reach a consensus even if it means putting aside specific goals for emissions cuts.

Story 2
Meanwhile in Denmark, Bjorn Lomborg, a leader of the "climate change contrarians" as they are being called, is claiming that global warming isn't a big threat and that the proposed treaties and carbon emission cuts would cost a lot but provide little help.

"Contrarians," to me is a strange little word that sounds like it should come from "Lord of the Rings" or "Star Wars" or some other fantasy that has a dark side.

I like NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt's response to the contrarians, "Their claim that debate is being stifled has the same credibility as members of the Flat Earth Society complaining about the round Earth mafia."

I first saw Lomborg a month or so ago on "Real Time with Bill Maher" as his book, "Cool It - The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming," was being released. You sort of get the idea that he is most interested in selling books rather than in putting a halt to progressive policies that might help the planet. I mean, he agrees that humans are responsible for climate change and that the threat of rising sea levels is real. He just says lets not do anything about it.

I don't have a problem with him urging leaders to address the problems of AIDS or malnutrition, but Bjorn, we are big guys...we can multi-task.

Take Bangladesh for example.

Which would be better?

a. Reducing poverty such that the populace can afford to better feed themselves only to face the disasterous effects of mass migrations along with flooding and loss of farmland when sea levels rise (one of many links that provide this information ).

b. Reducing poverty such that the populace can afford to better feed themselves and at the same time address climate change with policies that prevent the rise in sea level that will bring such disaster to the country, so that millions of people do not become refugees and can continue to live and farm on their own land.

"The one meter sea level rise generally predicted if no action is taken about global warming will inundate more than 15 percent of Bangladesh, displacing more than 13 million people and cut into the crucial rice crop". That is from the link cited above.

But the contrarians (be very careful...we have one here in our own city of Bessemer) don't care. I mean, if we were to get serious about cutting emissions that might mean we would require less oil, and if we required less oil, who would we go to war against? I think it's OK to lump the contrarians and the war for oil guys together. Let's give them a name...how about...republicans???

And I haven't even even mentioned Story 3 , an article headlined "2007 may be one of warmest years," which states "Within the last 30 years, the rate of warming is about three times greater than the rate of warming since 1900," according to Jay Lawrimore, chief of the climate monitoring branch of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Contrarians, you will lose this battle. The world does have a future.

The Arctic is Melting...and from the Tribune, Why Trust Bush?

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming," said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal. "Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."

Jay Zwally is a NASA climate scientist, who also said, "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."

Read the story here on aol news. Now I know that anecdotal reports and individual events can not by themselves prove global warming to be a fact. But here it is 78 degrees in the middle of December and dry as a bone. The picture in The Birmingham News this morning of a sunbather at Oak Mountain State Park tells the story of the bigger picture of climate change that the vast majority of real scientists know to be fact.

Just think, if one of the Republican planet haters gets elected president, by the time their term ends, the Arctic ice could be no more. From 2008 to 2012, while they would continue to refuse to admit our country's (and our species') part and ignore steps that should be taken to help our planet, the Arctic (along with Alaska and Greenland...see the article) would be melting.

The republicans don't care about our planet. The rest of the world doesn't count to them. Oh, unless they have oil.

They care about two things: money and power. And to control those things, they only use one tactic: fear.

Fear of terror . But as we have seen this week and last, terror from abroad is not what affects us, or what we should fear. Terror from deranged U. S. citizens at shopping malls and churches and universities is much more likely to affect us than a foreign born agent slipping in to the country.

Fear of immigrants. Just listen to the hateful rhetoric from republican presidential candidates about illegal immigration.

Fear of the gay community. Although gay people have been a part of world history since Socrates (yes) and a part of our history since the time of Johnny Appleseed (no, but read Frontiers by Michael Jenson...I have the book if you want to borrow it), now the thought of "Adam and Steve" living happily together or fighting to protect our country is supposed to scare people into voting to preserve bigotry and keep them in power.

Fear of Hillary. There is a debate today (1:00 central time on CNN and others, the Dems debate tomorrow)of Republican candidates, if it the debates of the past are any indication, Hillary's name will be mentioned more than any thing else. They are scared of her because she is a woman. They are scared of her because she is a leader. They are scared of her because she is right. They are scared of her because she represents the truth.

Here is what we should really fear. The remaining 405 days of the Bush presidency. I addressed this in my Western Tribune column this week, and here it is. For those who want to wait and read it in the newspaper at home by the fireplace (it's too hot to be building a fire) this evening, stop now. There is nothing after the Tribune column (till someone posts comments).

*********************************

There are just a little more than 400 days left in the Bush administration, but I am not sure the country can stand the rest of his term.

I worry about the children that have been learning about our government with him as their role model over the last few years.

The latest and possibly the most egregious thing the president has done is his handling of the intelligence concerning Iran and its nuclear capabilities.

Last week we learned that the president knew that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program as early as August, but continued to use harsh language in what appeared to be a run-up to war. This is similar to the way he deceived the American people in the run-up to the war in Iraq in 2002 and 2003.

Is George W. Bush three years old? He made an excuse for not changing his tone by saying “nobody ever told me” to change the rhetoric about Iran. That sounds like something one of my kids would have said when they were toddlers being scolded for something they did.

Just as disturbing is that Iran actually halted the program in 2003, and it took our intelligence community 4 years to realize it and report it in the National Intelligence Estimate.

Now in what could be an effort to shift attention from his mishandling of the Iran situation, Bush has sent a letter to Kim Jong Il, the North Korean leader that Bush once called a “pygmy,” asking for full disclosure of the dictator’s nuclear programs. But isn’t this the guy that Bush for years has refused to even recognize, much less communicate directly with?

Bush is taking the advice of Democratic presidential candidates who in debates have urged dialogue and diplomacy with our enemies. Only by talking with our enemies (which in the case of the Middle East are difficult to separate from our allies) can we reach peaceful solutions to the multitude of problems that confront us in the world’s hot spots.

While I must support the diplomatic effort the president has put forth regarding North Korea, I have to wonder why we should expect the leaders of that country and others to believe he is sincere. The world knows this administration deceived them (and us) about Iraq, and now can clearly see he was trying to do the same with Iran.

Why trust him now?

Planet Hater Rush Limbaugh, and Antarctica Stuff

Rush Limbaugh has to be one of the most irresponsible people on the planet. Yesterday he had one of those little fits he sometimes has, this time about global warming and MSNBC. Limbaugh was critical that NBC and all the little NBC's are going green, and in particular he didn't like Bob Costas bringing this up during the NFL pre-game show.

Limbaugh said he didn't think politics was supposed to be brought into sports, since his Donovan McNabb incident a few years ago, but that NBC is doing it.

Rush...heads up. This is not a political issue...it is an enviromental issue.

Limbaugh then went on to show his lack of knowledge and understanding of science in general and climate change in particular, and is just another planet hater. (Similar to the editor of the Western Star, except Limbaugh knows not to plagiarize).

My mother used to use an expression something like "cutting off your nose to spite your face," and Limbaugh did just that when he said he said turtle season was over so he turned on all his outside lights, more than usual, and left them on to counter the effects of those turning off their lights to conserve energy.

Why don't you leave your car running all night too Rush, or leave the windows open when you run your air conditioner? Conservative is supposed to mean conserving (that includes energy), and you promote wasting? Oh, just like the republican led congress and president did with our money prior to 2007.

Any normal and responsible person, even if they were not aware or convinced of climate change, would still want to conserve energy and work to improve the enviroment.

NBC has sent the Today Show's Ann Curry to Antarctica, and Matt Lauer to the Arctic to report on climate and environmental issues.

But did you know that UAB has a connection, a major one, to Antarctica? In fact, an island has been named for two UAB researchers , Charles and Margaret Amsler?

UAB has had scientists in the frozen land doing research. Look at this video ...it's just a couple of minutes long. See who, from our community, is involved in this important work, and hear them tell us why.

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One thing I like about fall is seeing certain flowers make their last effort at blooming before cold weather sets in. The little noisette roses that I have pictured before are doing just that.









When really, they should be satisfied with already producing numerous bright orange rose hips like these.




















Dogwoods are known around here for their flowers in the spring, but in the fall they produce vibrant leaves and bright red berries.

And mums come in all colors, but look at these. They came from the Publix on Highway 150, if you want one.

I'm away, but read this

Blogging will be light or absent until Tuesday. Unless something crazy happens. Thursday I am in a meeting at UAB all day...and Friday it's off to Arizona!!!

For your amusement until then, here is my Western Tribune column from Wednesday's paper:

Let’s see the U. S. Supreme Court try to take away Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize. You know, like they did his presidential win in 2000.

And still there are those who deny that climate change is occurring. However, a record drought and 14 days with temperatures over 100 degrees during the month of August might convince some.

In the state of Alabama during August there were 600 heat related illnesses reported, with 136 of those admitted to a hospital. Fourteen people in our state died as a result of the heat, according to the National Weather Service.

Gore shares the prize with the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for spreading awareness of climate change and its causes and laying a foundation for counteracting it.

Gore also won an Academy Award this year for the movie, An Inconvenient Truth, which documents his arguments about global warming.

Supporters are calling for him to enter the presidential race, and a web site, www.draftgore.com, has appeared. But should he run?

Not in my opinion. Since Al Gore already won the presidency once he has nothing to prove. He is in a unique situation, especially after winning this award, to make a huge difference in the world. I just hope people will listen.

Some may question what climate change has to do with peace, but Jan Egeland, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs recognized that “It is a question of war and peace. We’re already seeing the first climate wars.” He was referring to the Sahel belt of Africa where nomads are fighting with farmers because climate change has brought about a shortage of fertile lands.

In our country we should not have to resort to conflict, because we still have the will to share and have the infrastructure to move resources and produce around. But when people get hungry and their livelihoods are threatened, watch out.

Of interest is that former president Jimmy Carter, the last American to win the Nobel Prize, did so in 2002, also during George W. Bush’s presidency. Two highly respected democrats being awarded for peace when a war happy president is in office. The world is indeed an unusual place.