The Year of Moving Forward

The Year of Moving Forward
At our 4 person wedding reception in DC

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Early Voting...Tonight's Debate

Early voting has been going on in several swing states. Why don't we have this in Alabama? It would allow voting by people who may be unable to vote on November 4.

Absentee and Early Voting

Early voting differs from absentee voting in that voters may visit an election official’s office or, in some states, other satellite voting locations, and cast a vote in person without offering an excuse for not being able to vote on election day.

Early voting generally is conducted on the same voting equipment used in the regular election, as opposed to absentee voting, which is conducted on mail-in paper ballots. The time period for early voting varies from state to state, but most often it is available during a period of 10-14 days before the election, generally ending on the Friday or Saturday immediately preceding the election.

For information on voting absentee in Alabama click AlabamaVotes.gov

Early voting is taking place in several swing states, and of course, early voters are polled just like regular voters. Here are some results, from fivethirtyeight and early voter poll results are listed alongside likely voter poll results:

In New Mexico Early voters Obama + 23% Likely voters Obama +6%

In Ohio Early voters Obama +18% Likely voters Obama +4%

In Georgia Early voters Obama +6% Likely voters McCain + 11%

In Iowa Early voters Obama +34% Likely voters Obama +10%

In North Carolina Early voters Obama +34% Likely voters McCain +5%.

This averages to 23% advantage for Obama.

Interesting observations:

In 2000 and 2004, early voters leaned toward the Republican. Bush had 62% of early voters in 2000 against Gore, and 60% against Kerry in 2004.


In past elections, early voters tended to be older, and more male than female. CW should allow that this favors Republicans, so one would expect McCain to do better among early voters.

Early voters seem to be staunch supporters, so this should not be taken as an indicator of how undecided voters will cast their ballots.

What can be learned is that Obama's base, his staunch supporters, are turning out. Barring unforeseen events, they should also turn out on election day.

Picture credit CNN Getty Images

The final presidential debate is tonight, from Hofstra University in New York. The candidates will be sitting awful close to each other. Obama better watch out, because McCain has vowed to "whip his you know what." I'd love to see them get into a scrap. Tune in.

3 comments:

BAMALOVER said...

Alabama is used to a 30% voter turn-out! That will not be the case this year & unfortunately~~ I anticipate nearly a million people will be turned away from the poles in the major metro areas simply because our voting booths will not be able to handle the load! This is unbelievable! Look at the turnout in the rest of the states that are allowing early voting!! People are waiting in line 5 & 6 hours to vote every day so~~ what will happen when all those voters turned out trying to vote in one day?? Guess we need not worry about the state of Alabama turning "Blue" come election day because a major percentage of it's population will not be able and/or allowed to vote!! Chalk one up for the "Good ol boy system" again I guess! Our politicians should be ashamed!
Sincerely, one irate Alabama citizen

Joe Openshaw said...

So sad, but I think you right. Even voting absentee is difficult. Yesterday..well..it's a long story. I will post something about it later.

BAMALOVER said...

Hi Joe. I'm pretty dern sure I'm right & I have been screaming at the DNC & our probate judge but alas~~~ nobody seems to consider Alabama important! If we end up with 59 rather than 60 seats because of it or somebody starts screaming for a recount~ I will be telling them "I told ya so"!!